Black Friday 2026 in the US: What 2025 Data Tells Shoppers
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Black Friday falls on November 27 in 2026. The official US forecasts for this year's event have not yet been published, but the final numbers from 2025 give shoppers a useful baseline.
The clearest lesson is that Black Friday is now a mobile, online and increasingly AI assisted shopping period. A good plan matters more than waiting for one dramatic midnight price drop.
What happened on Black Friday 2025
Adobe Analytics reported a record $11.8 billion in US online spending on Black Friday 2025, up 9.1 percent from 2024. Cyber Monday remained even larger at $14.25 billion, while the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday generated $44.2 billion online.
Source: Adobe Analytics, December 2, 2025More people shopped across the long weekend
The National Retail Federation counted a record 202.9 million shoppers during the five day Thanksgiving weekend, compared with 197 million in 2024. Black Friday still led the individual days, but shoppers spread purchases across stores, websites and several dates.
Source: National Retail Federation, December 2, 2025Mobile and AI changed the shopping journey
Across the full 2025 holiday season, smartphones accounted for 56.4 percent of online transactions. Adobe also measured a 693.4 percent rise in traffic from generative AI services to retail sites. Those figures do not guarantee the same growth in 2026, but they make continued mobile shopping and AI assisted product discovery reasonable expectations.
Source: Adobe Analytics 2025 holiday reportWhich categories may offer the strongest discounts
In 2025, Cyber Monday discounts peaked at 31 percent for electronics, 28 percent for toys, 25 percent for apparel, 23 percent for computers and 22 percent for televisions. That is historical evidence, not a promise for 2026. Expensive electronics are worth tracking early because model numbers, specifications and starting prices can differ between retailers.
Source: Adobe Analytics, December 2, 2025What to expect in 2026
Until the 2026 forecasts arrive, the safest expectation is a longer sale season rather than one decisive Friday. Retailers are likely to compete early, shoppers will continue comparing on phones, and AI tools will play a larger role in finding products. Treat these as directional expectations based on 2025 behavior, not guaranteed sales figures.
Seven ways to shop Black Friday safely
- Write down the exact products and maximum prices before promotions begin.
- Track the same model at several retailers instead of trusting the largest discount percentage.
- Include shipping, memberships and return costs in the final price.
- Research unfamiliar sellers and search their name with words such as review, complaint or scam.
- Use a credit card when possible and avoid sellers demanding gift cards, wire transfers or cryptocurrency.
- Save receipts, order confirmations and promised delivery dates.
- Share one wishlist so gift buyers can reserve items and avoid duplicates.
Black Friday data can show where shopping is heading, but it cannot tell you whether a particular deal fits your budget. Build a focused wishlist now, record the exact models you want and compare the final price before buying.